Saturday, July 14, 2012

Unscheduled downtime should be a random phenomenon

by Terrence O'Hanlon, Publisher and CEO Reliabilityweb.com and Uptime Magazine

If you are still doing time-based or run-time-based maintenance (Preventive Maintenance or PM) as a primary maintenance strategy you should be aware of the "Waddington Effect".

20 years before Nowlan and Heap wrote “Reliability Centered Maintenance”, and way before John Moubray wrote RCM2 was work down by a British scientist named C.H. Waddington who was put in charge of British aircraft maintenance in WWII.

He stated that unscheduled downtime should be a random phenomenon.  If all unscheduled downtime events are plotted with respect to the last PM, there should not be any pattern evident.

Waddington concluded that the scheduled maintenance: “…tends to increase breakdowns, and this can only be because it is doing positive harm by disturbing a relatively satisfactory state of affairs. Secondly, there is no sign that the rate of breakdown is beginning to increase again after the 40-50 flying hours, when the aircraft is coming due for its next [scheduled preventive maintenance event].”

In other words the Waddington Effect states that scheduled preventive maintenance was actually doing more harm than good.

Have you formally tracked unplanned downtime that happens shortly after a scheduled PM at your company?

If you are not ready for more proactive reliability-based approaches, one thing you can do is to look at increasing the time or operating hours between PM's - a pretty simply solution if you are stuck in the Waddington Effect.

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